Angel investor. Cofounder of Earn, Counsyl, Teleport, Coin Center. Previously CTO of Coinbase, GP a16z. I hear this Bitcoin thing might be kind of a big deal.
RT @mjk1093: @robinhanson If/when effective life extension tech ever becomes available, I anticipate that it will be made available to all…
RT @primalpoly: @paulkrugman This is the most short-sighted, unethical, & inhumane thing Krugman had ever written. If the rich don't subsid…
RT @Altimor: Discovering @Jasoncrawford ‘s amazing new project, @rootsofprogress, a blog to analyze the core generators of human progress.…
Live forever or die. https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1151057956235907072
RT @VitalikButerin: @robinhanson I'm normally not one to enthusiastically go for emotive moralistic language when criticizing things, but b…
RT @robinhanson: "Life extension for a privileged few is, by its nature, a socially destructive technology, & the time has come to ban it.…
Excellent thread on the new game theoretic considerations that have arisen after ten years of deployed Bitcoin at scale. Worth writing up as a paper or blog post! https://twitter.com/el33th4xor/status/1151061362598207489
Discord Nitro Server Boosting is pretty interesting. You can’t just upgrade a server yourself. Your community must upgrade it for you. And you need enough unique fans to do that. Counterintuitive! But seems like a new form of collective incentivization. https://support.discordapp.com/hc/en-us/articles/360028038352-Server-Boosting-
RT @PatrickWStanley: Today, we're thrilled to announce monthly App Mining payouts are increasing from $100,000 to $1,000,000 in Stacks (STX…
RT @ramonrecuero: Blockchain in Three Tweets "Blockchain will replace market with networks" - @naval "BTC is the best SoV ever invented…
RT @RulesByCam: Love this quote. Human desires that still have a high # of steps: - financial freedom - moving to a new place - learning a…
RT @jacinthsohi: .@flySFO forcing @Uber into the parking garage instead of curb pickup is one of the most idiotic decisions I’ve seen in a…
Now, where it gets interesting is that after a few iterations you do get qualitatively new behavior. Postal mail → Email → Group email → Facebook thread Try replicating a Facebook thread with postal mail! You’d spend a fortune in stamps. Imagine mass mailing every comment.
Evan Williams made a similar point several years ago. https://www.fastcompany.com/3019327/ev-williams-formula-for-creating-billion-dollar-companies
But otherwise I agree with @BrianNorgard. What tends to happen instead is that niche behaviors get popularized by technology. Going to library → Google Looking at photo albums → FB International calls → Skype Call a taxi → Uber Not new behaviors, but newly popular.
The closest thing I can think of to a truly new behavior with no immediate precedent that became popular is Amazon Echo. People weren’t really walking around the house talking to themselves. I guess Siri existed but I don’t think (?) it was that popular. https://twitter.com/briannorgard/status/1150966602361257985
 
 
Definitely become massively more popular. But arguably personal ads in newspapers were a precedent behavior.
 
I think one has to be careful not to broaden the definition of precedent so much that it loses predictive value. Online dating is 40%+ of new American relationships - it’s a big stretch to say that isn’t new behavior
 
My theory: all big companies involve eithe a huge change in behavior or no change at all in behavior - in hindsight ;)
 
Oh sure. I saw that graph too. But what I meant is that when things like Compuserve dating *first* came out, the immediate precedent was newspaper personals. Took a while but: newspaper personals → Compuserve → Match → OkCupid → Tinder That gets us to 40%
 
On that framing you can say that nothing is really new
Actually, the counter to that counter is the Great Firewall. The Chinese government may be the one entity technologically sophisticated enough to monitor internet traffic within its borders and stop/halt certain innovations. Perhaps that’s what Liu Cixin was thinking of.
By the way, the analogy isn’t perfect. Sophon locking is a technologically superior civ holding back a less advanced civ. That’s not the case here. Standard luddites just smashed machines. The “human sophons” are more like organized luddites. It’s legalized destruction.
I’m bullish mainly because of crypto. Outside of that, we moved very quickly from banning straws & scooters to advocating the breakup or destruction* of the most valuable cos in the US. These things are never surgical. Startups will also suffer. * Eg: http://archive.is/ks1jf
The fundamental question of the next 20-30 years may be whether software eats the world before sophons lock the world.
A sophon lock already kind of exists on every industry not related to computers. These sophons aren’t alien in origin but all too human. See Eroom’s Law for how drug development has become exponentially more expensive over the last century: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eroom%27s_law https://twitter.com/kevinakwok/status/1150863772686389248
RT @DealBankAsia: This is solution for SV Housing crisis. @benedictevans @balajis @anshublog @Benioff "An investor-led building boom has a…
This is cool. The Ken is like The Information of India. Obvious by now, but feels like India's startup ecosystem is really starting to take off. https://twitter.com/jonrussell/status/1150692114256150528
RT @octal: Friend of mine was just violently assaulted (attempted robbery or worse; dude just kept attacking when she fought back) in SF in…
RT @PalmerLuckey: This article lists (supposed) sales figures for every headset on the Oculus platform except the two longest-running and b…
“There isn't another vehicle created during our 70 years of existence that has had a truly comparable effect on automobiles, the automotive industry, and society at large.” https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1149370463564357632
I understand the rationale behind making sure the CEO of a public company hits every forecast. It’s important to deliver on your commitments. What that often leads to in practice is sandbagging and incrementalism. Need a healthy balance of vision and pragmatism.
It’s an awesome vision. Yes, the forecast was aggressive. And there are technical and regulatory barriers. But the v1 does work. You can summon a Tesla from down the street. And people now know what the long term goal is. Even if it takes 10+ years, no one else articulated it. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920
 
People articulated it 20 years ago, though.
RT @rabois: For some perspective.
RT @antoniogm: I suspect, the answer is 'no'. Consider how the seeds of past evil behavior live on. Online 'call-out' culture isn't very d…
RT @balajis: “You’re making tech culture toxic!!!”, I wrote, as I joined a dogpile against a guy on the other side of the world that I’d ne…
“You’re making tech culture toxic!!!”, I wrote, as I joined a dogpile against a guy on the other side of the world that I’d never met.
To identify arbitrage opportunities, you might plot hype vs importance for a number of keywords. For hype, measure it by press or social media mentions (these would give overlapping but different results). For importance, measure it by revenue, usage, or perhaps search traffic.
For example, it feels like there's a lot less hype around (say) Dropbox than several years ago, but there's significantly more revenue and usage. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DBX/dropbox/revenue
Buzz is proportional to novelty rather than usage or importance.
RT @PoolTogether_: 2/ We made one big change, we lowered the ticket cost to just 4 Dai (from 20 Dai). This creates a way for normal people…
RT @balajis: Ten years after the launch of Bitcoin, the President of the United States and the Chair of the Federal Reserve are both discus…
RT @balajis: Ten years after the launch of Bitcoin, the President of the United States and the Chair of the Federal Reserve are both discus…
One good thing about huge tech cos is that they have the budgets to take second and third swings on hardware. Microsoft: Kinect for devs Google: Glass for enterprise Apple: Watch for fitness For a smaller company like Snap, Spectacles v2 (while good!) was a bigger risk.
RT @balajis: Choosing San Francisco in 2020 is like choosing Java in 2010. You can do it, you might even be able to build a great company w…
This is cool: version 2.0 of the Kinect depth camera, now $399 and optimized for developers. https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/11/microsofts-399-azure-kinect-ai-camera-is-now-shipping-in-the-u-s-and-china/
RT @FrankLuntz: Keep an eye on your @coinbase portfolios… https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192
RT @Elise_Jordan: How much crypto can I buy tonight https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192
RT @adi__bahri: @balajis @balajis a young me once took your advice when you said "it's easier to reduce your burn rate by moving to Thailan…
RT @KyleTibbitts: @balajis Seems like a big moment of validation for crypto. The startup equivalent is a mega tech company CEO/CFO trashing…
Here's a link where you can look at #TrumpTweetsBitcoin in realtime. Some amusing comments there! https://twitter.com/search?vertical=default&q=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump%2Fstatus%2F1149472282584072192&src=typd https://twitter.com/ErikVoorhees/status/1149502099614396417
Ten years after the launch of Bitcoin, the President of the United States and the Chair of the Federal Reserve are both discussing it on the same day. The tone almost doesn't matter. Ten years hence, this will be routine. Every nation state may have to hold crypto. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192
 
This was also happening 5+ years ago in private, fwiw.
RT @DavidBCollum: Errata: "I am not a fan of the dollar and other fiat currencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile…
RT @michaelmalice: You promised to audit the Fed via executive order in the first 100 days of your presidency https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192
RT @nathanielpopper: Well, you certainly can't say that cryptocurrencies are being ignored anymore. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192
RT @real_vijay: #Bitcoin achievement unlocked. The President of the United States is now tweeting about it. Expect a lot more of this in th…
RT @jerallaire: Possibly the largest bull signal for BTC ever. Crypto now a Presidential / Global policy issue. People everywhere will embr…
 
 
 
 
 
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