Co-host of 'What'd You Miss?' on BloombergTV. Editor at @business. Fan of poker, chess, (American) handball, country music, and Chinese food.
RT @nycsouthpaw: That’s the last I’ll be talking about these heretofore notorious and widespread rumors, so I must say thank you, Nikki Ha…
RT @_SidVerma: When market makers offer liquidity in the summer
RT @neelkashkari: True
It is interesting that the consensus of many of the people I follow on here is that what's needed is looser monetary policy in the US and looser fiscal policy in Europe. And Trump arrives in the same place, even if his path to get there is different.
Economists: the biggest imbalances in the global economy right now are the result of overly tight European fiscal policy. Trump:
RT @StaceyShick: This @conorsen take on Popeyes is the economic perspective I didn't know I needed 💯
RT @rj_gallagher: Excited to announce that next month I'll be joining Bloomberg @technology as a senior reporter. I'll cover the same topic…
Watching this Netflix documentary on the National Prayer Breakfast. Not really sure what to make of it, though I agree that promoting eating breakfast is problematic.
As are the Washington Nationals
RT @conorsen: "TCJA paid for itself by being so ineffective in stimulating growth that interest rates plunged."
I have a question for corporate governance theorists. If shareholders own the company, why is there information that shareholders aren't privy to? (EG granular information on unit economics for companies like Uber et al)
There's so much demand for German bunds, nobody wants to buy them anymore.
RT @LJKawa: @tracyalloway @TheStalwart congrats guys
2.0593% for a 30-year fixed, as of this morning
RT @boes_: @RajaKorman @TheStalwart @naufalsanaullah @petercoy @katiadmi first chapter of the new textbook describes "neoclassical definiti…
RT @pearkes: @LibGuy1066 @TheStalwart there's a difference between committing actual fraud and running a business with horrific margins. no…
To illustrate the effectiveness of the full reserve bank model, see "The Bank of Amsterdam and the Origins of Central Banking" Quinn, S., & Roberds, W. (2005). Adam Smith in The Wealth of Nations praised the money of the Wisselbank for "its intrinsic superiority to currency".
Over the long term, every sufficiently large non-crypto tech company will be quasi-nationalized via licensing & regulation. Thus we need decentralized finance, social networks, exchanges, identity, messaging — everything. But these workloads vary, so we need multiple chains.
To me, the long term plan for crypto is that (a) everyone holds BTC as the reserve asset and (b) we also get decentralized finance, social networks, etc. It’s a positive sum view: the crypto ecosystem (especially ETH) is both useful in its own right and increases demand for BTC.
How does ETH increase demand for BTC?
BTC serves as the reserve asset of the cryptoeconomy. It’s what you cash out to, what everyone in the ecosystem values. But that ecosystem wouldn’t exist at current scale without ETH and other chains. Also, major exchanges see large volume between BTC/ETH, as well as ETH tokens.
Sure. But you can sell ETH for USD. If ETH gets big enough, what's the point of a bridge?
BTC is usable everywhere there is an internet connection, and can’t be seized/inflated. The USD doesn’t have those properties. Different financial instruments have different properties, hence people have a portfolio to guard against different scenarios. Crypto just extends this.
But then why not all ETH? Why can't it also exhibit the digital gold role?
ETH is not censorship resistant, can be confiscated as the DAO proved and so cannot be a store of value.
“Ethereum does not have an official Monetary Policy.”
An economy backed by digital gold makes a ton of sense. A form of money that cannot be inflated or seized as the foundation. An economy where digital gold is the only financial instrument makes no sense. BTC is like gold: valuable, scarce, not meant for daily use or small txs.
So what happens when governments start storing it and issuing notes against it? 😂
I just don't get how BTC "backs" an ETH economy. IMO they're like water and oil and don't mix in any meaningful way, except maybe temporarily on exchanges where fiat liquidity is limited. One will win, and one will lose ultimately.
The emerging parts of the cryptoeconomy provide the other financial instruments. Decentralized loans, interest, derivatives, prediction markets, exchanges, stablecoins, etc. Much of it ETH-based. They make the cryptoeconomy more useful & its reserve asset (BTC) more valuable.
RT @sarahsolfails: People tenderly showing off their White Claw cans like
Just saw a highly loaded tweet from an ostensibly neutral political reporter.
Saw this article blasting negative rates and I can't believe the writer didn't modify it to Something Rotten In The State of Deutsche Mark
Look obviously I don't know what effect tighter or looser monetary policy will have on these businesses. But we should at least start by acknowledging that many of these unicorns that people associate with financial excess were creatures of the bust, not a boom.
Tired: Uber and WeWork are dependent on virtually unlimited access to cheap cash. Tighter monetary policy would hurt them. Wired: Uber and WeWork are dependent on cheap labor and under-utilized office space. Tighter monetary policy would keep those things abundant.
Inspired: These unsustainable business models will fail no matter what the future course of monetary policy.
It's interesting that many Austrians like Bastiat's concept of The Seen And The Unseen. And yet they look at WeWork/Uber and say: "See, a massive bubble thanks to unlimited capital" and yet they ignore unseen competitors who died (or never launched) because of their dominance.
WeWork is bringing about everyone's inner Austrian.
I.e. Do companies with weak financials and rich CEOs take more risks than companies with weak financials and not-as-rich CEOs.
Has anyone ever looked to see if there are links between a company's level of investment, and the CEO's (not the overall company's) financial wellbeing?
RT @jp_koning: A ten second remittance. Transferwise does this by tying together the Reserve Bank of Australia's new instant payments net…
RT @Sebaboyd: @TheStalwart @mbusigin @conorsen The flip-side of this is the Trumpian mercantilist view of trade in which the U.S. buys wash…
RT @guan: yaaaasssss
RT @LJKawa: I wrote the Joe graf in @LorcanRK's 5 things newsletter and it is not a subtweet of @TheStalwart, I swear. Sign up here: https…
Economists: Monetary policy works with long and variable lags. Also economists: Don't blame the Fed's four rate hikes in a year when housing and car sales were already slowing for an economic deceleration a year later.
RT @FinancialTimes: In October, it’ll be 50 years since Kerouac died, alcoholic and miserable, but his legacy remains the romantic vision o…
Also, Trump's criticism of the Fed probably has, ironically, resulted in less scrutiny of the Fed's 2018 rate increases than there ought to be.
Good observation. Political opposition to Trump is simultaneously causing people to engage in bad analysis of the current economic situation as well as the big picture trading arrangement.
What does a parking garage have on its balance sheet?
The problem with this analogy is that physical cash is a very small part of overall money.
Physical gold wasn't, and Bitcoin likely won't be either...
In proposals for 100% reserve banking, what specifically do banks hold on the asset side of the balance sheet?
Feels like I'm being subtweeted in the @markets newsletter today by @LJKawa
"It’s refreshing that Joe Weisenthal is challenging the notion that people should be able to deposit their money in a checking account and be paid interest on it"
RT @tracyalloway: Germany plans to sell a 30-year bond with a 0% coupon.
"All monetary policy decisions tend to have re-distributional consequences. Expansionary monetary policy, both standard and non-standard, tends to reduce income and wealth inequality."
Literature on the actual effects of monetary policy on inequality is at best mixed, we have to at least read it! P.S. the idea that "vulnerable households" in the US are saving $2,000 per year is risible in itself. 40% of Americans couldn't cover a $400 expense with cash.
This is what drives me crazy when I see yieldbugs talking about low rates or inflation decimating the lower and middle classes.
RT @TheStalwart: Crypto Twitter seems angrier at @bitstein for giving a speech than it is at all the people who hyped up ICOs in 2017.
RT @TheStalwart: Crypto Twitter seems angrier at @bitstein for giving a speech than it is at all the people who hyped up ICOs in 2017.
It's 5.39am in New York and @TheStalwart hasn't tweeted anything about yieldbugs yet, August is over
RT @TheStalwart: One look at the video leaves no ambiguity about which side is on the right side of history.
What's the best/longest Grateful Dead live jam track? Like if I just wanted to listen to, like, 25 minutes of crazy guitar work, what's concert/song should I listen to?
Maggot Brain by Parliament Funkadelic
RT @prestonjbyrne: @TheStalwart @C1aranMurray @nivertech Tether behaves this way too. Bloomberg did an investigation which concluded that T…
RT @Alex_Danco: @prestonjbyrne @lwsnbaker @TheStalwart @felixsalmon Pink gravel futures contracts though? Now you’re talking
RT @prestonjbyrne: @lwsnbaker @TheStalwart @felixsalmon Would that mean pink gravel could form the basis of a new economy? No. It would mea…
RT @prestonjbyrne: @lwsnbaker @TheStalwart @felixsalmon I could overcollateralize a $1,000,000,000 CDO with ten pounds of pink gravel if I…
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