Co-host of the Odd Lots podcast and 'What'd You Miss?' on Bloomberg TV. Editor. Fan of chess, Chinese food, and the Bakersfield Sound.
RT @tracyalloway: I need 1,500 more followers to overtake someone on my list of enemies. If you believe small, petty victories that no one…
The party in Lake Ozark looked fun. However if it were me, I would probably have waited a few weeks.
RT @tracyalloway: The Basic portfolio (Lululemon, Ulta Beauty, Urban Outfitters, Pinterest, Etsy, Starbucks) continues to outperform the wi…
Problem is, under the status quo, we’ve had chronic underemployment for decades. And a series of bubbles and crashes. So it’s not clear why we should be that reluctant to embrace some new direction.
This is not the first time I’ve seen it suggested that the misconception about government finance might actually be good. That people should be careful what they wish for, regarding understanding government finance.
I have thoughts on this line from @CharlesFLehman’s review of @StephanieKelton’s book. https://freebeacon.com/policy/review-the-deficit-myth-by-stephanie-kelton/
Futures solidly green
Feels like a Wednesday
RT @NeerajKA: Shout out to snickers ice cream for listing the serving size as the entire box
RT @BeijingCode: @TheStalwart To everyone who thinks this is a tautology: do you think that fact that no communist nation has been successf…
A thought that keeps running through my head these days is that 100% of the fiat currencies in existence have survived. Whereas 100% of gold backed currencies have failed.
 
What about the US dollar? That was backed by gold, and it survived
RT @conorsen: GOP considers back-to-work bonuses: https://www.wsj.com/articles/gop-considers-back-to-work-bonuses-11590327465?mod=mhp @ModeledBehavior @karlbykarlsmith @ernietedeschi @sam_a_bell
RT @katherinemiller: This has a lot of interesting stuff about how King Arthur Flour has shifted production / logistics to deal with the ma…
RT @Chris_arnade: @DKThomp @TheStalwart I still think when all is said & done the biggest factor in who did well vs who didn't (beyond luck…
Such a simple, but important point in @M_C_Klein and @michaelxpettis’ book. Some of the most egregiously bad ideas I see on here stem from not getting this.
RT @guan: This (Noah’s response only) but unironically.
It’s becoming conventional wisdom on here that Biden is running a sound campaign. However I think the depression-level economic situation and human toll of the virus are also a significant factor.
Had a dream two nights ago that someone did a Twitter thread on real time housing data. Had a dream last night that a power company got a bailout but then started shutting off electricity to people who couldn’t pay their bills.
 
So the micro dosing is working
RT @jneeley78: It’s kind of odd how little attention Japan has gotten from the anti-lockdown folks as compared with Sweden, especially give…
RT @Julian_Epp: Another fantastic photo of Taco Bell in the 1990s, before the disease of modernism
RT @alexnpress: rise and grind
RT @hereforthefin: @TheStalwart I was thinking about that today. A lot of “spending to prepare not to”
RT @ArnabDatta321: THREAD (1/n): With the spate of recent stories and podcasts on automatic stabilizers, I thought it would be worth a thre…
The hard thing about assessing the economy right now is that this is probably the first recession where a bunch of people were forced to spend money as a result of lifestyle changes.
RT @morganhousel: Home Depot is absolutely packed.
RT @arpitrage: @jmorenocruz @Andrew___Baker If drug succeeds, rest of their holdings also appreciate in value. Drug development carries sys…
TIL pre-made michelada cups are a thing. Rim already spiced with a flavor pack inside. Just supply the beer. Incredible.
 
And people try to say that innovation is dead
“I think in about two or three weeks, this will be a lot more clear” is something I’ve been saying to myself for about three months now.
RT @scottdstone: Dear @potterybarn (and other retailers) : I am NOT shopping by appointment. You're allowed to be open, so be open. And why…
It occurred to me, we’ll know bitcoin has achieved large scale adoption when there’s a long wait to get pizza on #BitcoinPizzaDay (there wasn’t one yesterday) kind of like ordering from a Mexican restaurant on Cinco de Mayo.
RT @MagnusMacro: @TheStalwart There are no more than 15 minutes between my alarm and be writing ‘gm’ in a bbg chat these days. There are no…
I genuinely miss the office, and do not desire to wfh in perpetuity. But the lack of commute, and more time at home with family, is unambiguously better. So whatever comes out of this, I’m confident I won’t be looking to make the trip to work even longer than what it was.
 
Conceivably there are tony suburban areas of the Bronx where the 5 train commute would be shorter than your present one
 
What will the office be like when you get there? What will be different? Who won't be there? Will you be able to grab left over bagels from another meeting? Will meetings be smaller and shorter? Where will you eat lunch and where do you buy what you eat? https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/how-will-we-ever-be-safe-inside/611953/
Moving to the nyc suburbs as a way to escape nyc makes no sense to me. If wfh is an option, then go to where it’s warmer and cheaper. If wfh isn’t an option, then why are you adding to your commute? https://twitter.com/sobendito/status/1264181728521924608
 
And an opportunity to be in more public places near strangers (trains, toll booths, gas stations.)
It’s not crazy to think that policymakers would prefer to get us back to 2011 levels of economic activity vs February 2020 levels.
I remember talking dozens times on the radio over the last few years with @carolmassar and @Jasonkellynews about how much
I don’t make predictions. But it seems one plausible outcome here is that unemployment falls back to 10%, fiscal policy starts to get less robust, and stocks go back to all-time highs as investors anticipate 8 more years of ZIRP.
Great one from @interfluidity about the role of markets in laundering history https://www.interfluidity.com/v2/7333.html (HT: @ByrneHobart’s newsletter)
Sub-100 daily virus deaths in NYC for the guest time in two months. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-22/brazil-tops-russia-trump-orders-churches-open-virus-update
RT @BankruptcyData: $HTZ welcome to our top 25
Great thread (HT @allanschoenberg) https://twitter.com/athomasq/status/1263901188522676224
Countries (like Norway) and states (like Alaska) explicitly see their dominant export (oil) as a vehicle for funding welfare or a safety net. Countries that export their currencies do the same.
We recorded a great podcast yesterday with @BuddyYakov (out in a couple of weeks) where we talked (among other things) about conceptualizing the DM deficits was de facto sovereign wealth funds. https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1263787928230211585
RT @claireeboston: Now that is a capital structure
RT @michaelxpettis: Nearly 14 weeks after the lockdown in Beijing began, it seems we are finally starting to see the beginning of our long-…
*If* Trump loses, my guess is a large fraction of the younger male media personalities whose current profile is “leftist who complains constantly about the Dems” will end up becoming republicans as the great Wheel of Realignment keeps spinning.
 
So long as they are kept well away from power for the rest of their lives, we're good
 
Why would vocal critics of the Democrats become Republicans if the Democrats win? Have you ever been in a country with actual leftist parties? That’s not how any of this works.
 
I think this will be like 4 people who tweet a lot
 
That’s what I’m saying but maybe more like six people
 
Honestly, I said 4, but stalling out after 1.
RT @BloombergAU: Las Vegas casinos -- along with those across Nevada -- to reopen June 4 https://trib.al/er7JLZN
RT @DrewDouglass: @TheStalwart with the HUGE raise and *great* hand gets absolutely robbed on the river. #FinTwitPokerNight2
Is there a class conflict between bankers and bank shareholders? Aggressive fiscal policy would likely boost NGDP, which would good for bank profits. But aggressive fiscal policy may be redistributive, against the standing of bankers themselves.
Wishing happy holidays to all of my bitcoin friends and all who observe
RT @TheStalwart: All that will happen is there will be a new definition of entry level
It's interesting how podcasts are a medium that "came from the internet" so people get anxious about exclusive deals (eg Rogan/Spotify) whereas TV shows have been around forever, so nobody cares that Netflix shows can only be watched on Netflix.
 
I’m honestly surprised that podcasts have remained independent for this long.
RT @TheStalwart: .@niubi: "This move affirms that Hong Kong as we knew it is gone and rule of law is now rule by law, with the CCP determin…
If businesses in NYC start deserting their offices, I hope some of those spaces get turned into restaurants. Non-ground floor restaurants (of which there are several in Koreatwon) are the best.
 
They’re most restaurants in Hong Kong but such a rarity here. Unless you include, like, the ones in shopping malls at places like Columbus Circle and Hudson Yards, which are terrible
 
Yeah, lots in HK too. I bet the average non-ground level restaurant is better than your typical ground level one. Seems like something @tylercowen might have thoughts about.
 
There’s an interesting analogue with art galleries
I have to admit, I never would have guessed, that the CEOs of two of the world's largest crypto exchanges, would be touting the fact that a transaction of just 40 Bitcoin would make the currency so volatile. But who am I to argue with @tylerwinklevoss and @cz_binance
 
If I ran a Bitcoin exchange, I would simply not point that out.
 
You'e omitting important facts. https://twitter.com/tylerwinklevoss/status/1263502331880058887
 
Also - market conditions aren’t the responsibility of exchange heads — these markets are crazy & wild - they move for all kinds of funny reasons - pointing this out is simply pointing out reality & another interesting daily trading trivia The markets are fair & open
 
If you ran a Bitcoin exchange, you would run a Bitcoin exchange.
 
Do you know what this means
No it's the exact opposite. It takes very little to wildly swing the value of Bitcoin, as both you and @cz_binance have now both admitted. Whereas the dollar hardly moves at all even with extraordinary interventions by the Fed. https://twitter.com/tylerwinklevoss/status/1263498111508504576
 
The 40 bitcoin potentially represented 1 million bitcoin, so not insignificant value. On top of that, they potentially represented Satoshi's stash, which has further significance, especially if sold.
 
The dollar's value hardly moves? It's lost 90% or more of purchasing power since the 1970's. Bitcoin has appreciated from 0 to $10,000 in the last decade. As the Fed takes on a Weimar strategy, let's check back in 5-10 years to see where the 'value' of the U.S. dollar is.
Very insightful comment from the head of the world's largest crypto exchange about how much more fragile Bitcoin is than the U.S. dollar. https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1263138191021752320
 
To be fair I think if Alexander Hamilton rocked up with some early USD people would have some questions
If you had governments going pedal to the metal to maintain demand, while the supply side was reorganizing, it seems plausible. But just "more debt" or "central banks keeping rates low" I don't think will cut it.
 
The real risk imho is that govts and CBs will be so terrified of inflation that they cut spending prematurely and trigger a second Depression.
 
 
 
 
 
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