Chief Economist, Financial Products at Bloomberg LP mmcdonough10@bloomberg.net *views are my own*
https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/1186341593885884425
I added the price differential between soybeans imported from Brazil and the U.S. into China to my market share chart (helps to explain the divergence): {@theterminal chart link: https://bloom.bg/2J9DUIO }
Central Banks Webinar Series: Funding Trillion Dollar Deficits (Thursday, October 24). Register Here: http://bit.ly/CBSeries20Y
U.S. Government Tariff Revenue (Paid by Importers) {@theterminal chart link: https://bloom.bg/2FQ0WFh }
The Summer of Warren: 6 month net change in the RealClearPolitics poll average for Democratic candidates: {MSG or IB me on the Terminal for a live monitor}
Best Amtrak sighting yet! @JoeBiden
The Turkish lira appears confused: ($TRY)
Learning a lot about green bonds at the Sustainable Bonds Forum (cohosted with the IFC & ICMA) during the World Bank IMF Annual Meetings #ESG
GBP Avg Pre/Post Brexit
S&P Futures Reacting Positively to Brexit Developments:
GBP intraday on reports a Brexit deal may have been reached:
U.S. corporate tax revenue (down from tax cuts) rebased to 100 in January 2017 vs the same series with government tariff revenue added in:
Next month may be the month... (Percent of total retail sales at general merchandise stores vs. online)
RealClearPolitics Poll Average: {@theterminal chart link: https://bloom.bg/2VKVqZ7 }
Democratic Nominee Monitor: (MSG or IB if you want me to share the monitor)
Predictit Democratic Nominee Update: {@TheTerminal chart link: https://bloom.bg/2kaHn0r }
Trade uncertainty put into perspective: {@theterminal chart link: https://bloom.bg/2Ne8MLM }
Not a positive sign for growth.
Prior to the recent trade strife, the number of quarterly earnings calls mentioning "artificial intelligence" was quickly rising, subsequently growth stalled and the number of transcripts mentioning "trade war" spiked. During the third quarter, the number was nearly equal:
The sectors talking about AI:
Also hasn’t been updated in a while, but relevant: the number of earnings calls and transcripts mentioning “Artificial Intelligence” #automation #services
An old chart I haven’t updated in a while, but relevant: U.S. manufacturing employment has fallen while output per worker has risen dramatically #automation
At a large debate watching party in DC and noticed that the only candidate’s response the room quieted down and listened to was Andrew Yang.
RT @MikeBloomberg: Democratic presidential candidates aren’t short on big ideas – but voters must demand they explain how they intend to mo…
Evolution of the IMF's World Growth Forecasts:
Baltimore (on the way)
I suspect farmers may have some excess capacity. https://twitter.com/m_mcdonough/status/1181869676898504704
U.S. vs. Brazil (Market share of China's total soybean imports)
Greece yields turns negative: The yield on the Greek 3 month bill turned negative at today’s sale:
China's net soybean orders from the U.S. are back up ahead of this week's trade talks: {@theterminal chart link: https://bloom.bg/2B4ziiV } Where will they go next?
U.S. 30 Year Back Below 2%:
RT @ptsweeney: A great summer internship opportunity ⁦@business. ⁩ Application link here. 2020 Summer News Internship | New York, NY | Bloo…
Policy Uncertainty Indexes: (Historical with some annotations) {@TheTerminal chart link: https://bloom.bg/2Ne8MLM }
Market Now Pricing in Fed Rate Cuts in October, December and January: {@theterminal chart link: https://bloom.bg/2qthWWZ } {WIRP<Go>}
My NFP Monitor: (MSG or IB me if you want me to share)
My Predictit Dem Nominee Monitor (MSG or IB me if you would like me to share it):
Predictit Candidate Volumes:
Warren Remains Front-Runner on Predictit, While Sanders Slips Below Yang: {@theterminal chart link: https://bloom.bg/2kaHn0r }
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20191002003000315 https://twitter.com/38northnk/status/1177303365899997186
ISM YoY (Level Change)
RT @LiveSquawk: North Korea Appears To Have Launched Missile – Japan Coast Guard
https://youtu.be/Bh7bYNAHXxw
Expectations for multiple Fed cuts being priced back into the market: {@theterminal chart link: https://bloom.bg/2qthWWZ }
U.S. Manufacturing Surveys: ISM falls further below 50 {@theterminal chart link: https://bloom.bg/21GgU92 }
 
 
 
 
 
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