Newsman @WSJ. Just a lad from Leeds with a lust for markets, economics and history. My views, you're welcome to them. Fans say 'quite foxy and devious'.
You can still get evens on something like this with Betfair (by Oct 31, deal or no) https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1164338854888792064
Time to hike the sales tax https://twitter.com/ABartonMacro/status/1164338020004315136
RT @Birdyword: SOEs contribute just a quarter of Chinese GDP, sectoral share varies massively, from almost zero in some to almost all in ot…
China's "market oriented interest rate reform" is not a market-oriented interest rate reform, and the only interesting part of it is how desperate the PBOC is that any future monetary easing doesn't go into the housing market again https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trouble-with-rate-cuts-in-china-11566385540
Germany offers investors opportunity to store cash with them for 30 years at low fee https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1164133826559381504
RT @MDZFD: Financial journalist tinder bio
Economic antivax https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1164123395312836608
What's German for 'brass neck'
Honestly if I ask someone to lend me two billion at -0.11% for 30yrs and they'll only extend me 869 million at -0.11% you're not going to catch me calling it a failure. https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1164110735133351936
As @jackHHazlewood says, the fact that Cheng was traveling for work but seemingly without any sort of diplomatic protection may prompt some awkward questions.
RT @Birdyword: Literature on the actual effects of monetary policy on inequality is at best mixed, we have to at least read it! P.S. the i…
RT @Birdyword: This is a silly piece, the sort of which was common seven or eight years ago but which really shouldn't be any more. The wor…
Looking forward to the UK consulate explanation for what exactly it was doing during the 12 days between Simon Cheng being picked up by Chinese police and his girlfriend going to the press about it. Were they ever planning to mention it? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-49419711
RT @Birdyword: "The overall effect of monetary policy on standard relative measures of inequality has been small... households around retir…
SOEs contribute just a quarter of Chinese GDP, sectoral share varies massively, from almost zero in some to almost all in others. The least reformed portion of the Chinese economy is easy to spot. HT @gabewildau https://twitter.com/wendyleutert/status/1164043302582145025
Does contribute just a quarter of Chinese GDP, sectoral share varies massively, from almost zero in some to almost all in others. The least reformed portion of the Chinese economy is easy to spot. HT @gabewildau https://twitter.com/wendyleutert/status/1164043302582145025
The fact that we all stopped talking about it about a week and a half ago is probably the best sign that it went OK.
Two weeks on from the yuan breaking 7, I think it's fair to say it was fairly well managed by Beijing? Whatever you think of the long term prospects, so far it's only briefly passed 7.1, no sign of panic or massive intervention, seems like it went as well as they could have hoped
Pretty bold to try to include providing basic public sanitation infrastructure under the umbrella of 'behavioral economics' https://twitter.com/amitabhk87/status/1163974230490243072
Italian Prime Minister to Resign, Declaring End of Government https://www.wsj.com/articles/italian-prime-minister-to-resign-declaring-end-of-government-11566310341
You cannot escape Brexit
Weigh in behind the yo, Britons https://twitter.com/bydanielvictor/status/1163795442766766080
Good discussions under here https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1163610530520522752
"The overall effect of monetary policy on standard relative measures of inequality has been small... households around retirement age gained the most from the support to wealth, but that support to incomes disproportionately benefited the young." https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2018/the-distributional-impact-of-monetary-policy-easing-in-the-uk-between-2008-and-2014
"In contrast to popular beliefs, also the conclusions concerning the impact of unconventional monetary policies on income inequality are not clear cut... results for the impact of unconventional monetary policies on wealth inequality are rather mixed." https://www.dnb.nl/en/binaries/Working%20paper%20No.%20594_tcm47-375929.pdf
"All monetary policy decisions tend to have re-distributional consequences. Expansionary monetary policy, both standard and non-standard, tends to reduce income and wealth inequality." https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2170.en.pdf
Literature on the actual effects of monetary policy on inequality is at best mixed, we have to at least read it! P.S. the idea that "vulnerable households" in the US are saving $2,000 per year is risible in itself. 40% of Americans couldn't cover a $400 expense with cash.
 
This is what drives me crazy when I see yieldbugs talking about low rates or inflation decimating the lower and middle classes.
This is a silly piece, the sort of which was common seven or eight years ago but which really shouldn't be any more. The world with banks offering 5% interest rates on no-risk savings accounts is gone. The central banks didn't make it go away. We can't go back. It's done, please. https://twitter.com/Will_Tanner/status/1163719246750375938
Chiba Bank, my first stock pick (sell) for the @WSJheard stock-picking contest, is down 1.5% today. It just needs to do that every day from now until mid-December when the contest concludes and I'll likely emerge victorious. https://www.wsj.com/articles/things-can-get-worse-for-japans-immiserated-regional-banks-11566223449 via @WSJ
You don't hear much from those guys who used to love the S&P 500 - Fed balance sheet chart any more. What happened to those lads?
@UKinHongKong says "we are extremely concerned by reports that a member of our team has been detained returning to Hong Kong from Shenzhen." ??? If he's been missing for 12 days, why would you be discovering this from reports? https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/08/20/staff-member-uks-consulate-hong-kong-missing-10-days-mainland-china-business-trip/
 
I'm sure the logic here was that it's better to beg and plead with the Chinese govt for his release in private, and keep quiet in public. But it goes some way to show why anyone waiting for a big public show of support for HK from the UK govt will be waiting a long time.
Danske Bank forecasting five Fed rate cuts of 0.25bp at the next five Fed meetings
The gulf between Chinese real estate construction being started and Chinese real estate construction being completed is also still growing. Big gap now, the biggest on record. Completions shrinking at something like 10% year-over-year while starts rising at the same pace.
Another 1 trillion yuan or so in Chinese housing pre-sales recorded in July: another perhaps 700bn yuan to go on the household debt figures, as yet unrecognised.
If you're a @WSJ subscriber you should join our summer stock-picking contest! Select from over 8,000 securities. The best performing (bought) stock or worst performing (sold) stock from the picked date to December 16 wins. https://www.wsj.com/graphics/heard-on-the-street-summer-stock-picks-2019/
@Jasonfurman making the case that Trump's China strategy is not working https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-is-losing-the-trade-war-with-china-11566255608 via @WSJ
I didn't include a negative bps option but that's what I believe
If China dumped its ~$1.2 trillion in US Treasury holdings as soon as it possibly could, what do you think the maximum impact on the US 10yr yield would be one month after the completion of the sale?
Never knew there were quite so many Dalio stans
I'm lost in the mad replies to this. Angrghhhhhh
My first pick for @WSJheard's summer stock picking contest is Chiba Bank. This regional Japanese lender is cheap, but it's not cheap enough https://www.wsj.com/articles/things-can-get-worse-for-japans-immiserated-regional-banks-11566223449
@AbeShinzo are you about to get out-austeritied by Germany? https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1163404779776819200
RT @Birdyword: I missed this last week, didn't realise any serious people still believed it. Dalio says he can't rule out China weaponizin…
RT @MWStory: Giving a quick boost to my labour market value by writing a long confessional tweet thread about how elitist my college was. I…
P.s. I'm very sorry if you followed me for the pistol video, it's usually like this
It could be down to rate expectations obviously but it takes more of a galaxy brain than mine to establish that.
One of my favourite yield curve intricacies is that 50-30yr spread in the UK govt bond market is usually inverted regardless of conditions. Often attributed to insurer & pension demand, if true it's one of the best DM rates examples of a traditional supply-demand relationship
It's 5.39am in New York and @TheStalwart hasn't tweeted anything about yieldbugs yet, August is over
ME: I'm tired of life in the UK, an uncertain financial hub consumed by tensions over its relationship with its larger and more powerful neighbour. I think I will move. HONG KONG: [laughs in Cantonese]
What probability would you give right now to the UK leaving the EU on October 31?
Time to hike the sales tax https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1163343233411407872
True, UK also has a huge CAD, it's a good test of whether that matters much too. https://twitter.com/Ramanan_V/status/1163329393814429696
Country with a pretty marginal reserve currency and relatively high government debt levels, where inflation has actually been pretty close to its target over the last 10yrs, is about to counter a self-inflicted supply-side shock with a demand-side stimulus.
I understand why both critics and proponents of MMT use Japan as an example for different things, but it seems like the UK is by far the most interesting country in the world now in terms of stress-testing the idea of monetary sovereignty.
I missed this last week, didn't realise any serious people still believed it. Dalio says he can't rule out China weaponizing UST holdings https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/08/16/ray-dalio-china-could-weaponize-us-treasury-holdings-in-trade-war.html?__twitter_impression=true
RT @Birdyword: Horrified to realise that European bank stocks have formed an 'elephants declining in size' technical formation. A global re…
 
 
 
 
 
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